Arch Capital Valuation
| ACGL Stock | USD 93.67 1.37 1.48% |
The market is pricing Arch Capital at $93.67 versus an estimated Real Value of $101.81 per share, indicating the stock is undervalued. For Arch Capital, the model's primary valuation inputs include a return on equity of 20% and a profit margin of 22%, with those signals pressure-tested against technical indicators and risk profile. Key valuation drivers for Arch Capital include:
According to the latest estimates, Cash is advancing with a magnitude of about 4.76%. Arch Capital closed last year with Cash at 993 Million. As of March 23, 2026, Accounts Payable is estimated to increase to approximately 4.8 B. Also, Change To Account Receivables is estimated to increase to approximately 39.9 M.
Undervalued
Today
Right now, the market is showing Very Low price fluctuation for Arch Capital. The real value model for Arch Capital Group currently uses a 3 months horizon. Lengthening the time horizon typically improves pricing accuracy and gives the model more predictive depth.
Fair value for the Arch stock can be framed as the amount a typical acquirer may be willing to pay for all or part of Arch Capital Group. Market participants currently establish the traded value of Arch Stock through open buying and selling activity. Any gap between market price and intrinsic value may matter if trading activity eventually pushes price closer to underlying value. | Historical | Market 93.67 | Real 101.81 | Target 109.32 | Hype 92.26 | Naive 93.1 |
The intrinsic value of Arch Capital's stock can be calculated using various methods such as discounted cash flow analysis. Methods used to estimate Arch Capital's intrinsic value include DCF analysis, P/E multiples, and asset-based approaches.
Assessing the upside and downside potential of Arch Capital Group gives a clearer view of the risk-reward trade-off. Arch stock's contribution to portfolio performance depends on both intrinsic value and market dynamics.When choosing an evaluation method for Arch Capital Group, ensure it is appropriate for the current financial situation. Market multiples show how similar companies are currently priced relative to Arch Capital.
Main Profitability Drivers
Arch Capital converts revenue at a 22.07% net margin rate, while its operating margin sits at 29.53%. A 7.46-point margin gap suggests that below-the-line items meaningfully affect Arch Capital's net profitability. On 19.93 Billion of revenue, Arch Capital earned 7.41 Billion in gross profit and 4.4 Billion on the bottom line. At 19.54% ROE and 4.44% ROA, Arch Capital's efficiency metrics offer insight into capital and asset utilization. The profitability landscape for Arch Capital is neither uniformly strong nor uniformly weak, suggesting a transitional period. A more granular view is available in Arch Capital's profitability metrics for a broader perspective on earnings quality.
Price Book 1.4049 | Gross Profit | Price Sales 1.6795 | Profit Margin | Enterprise Value Revenue 1.8417 |
Arch Capital Cash | 1.04 Billion |
Total Value Analysis
The market-value snapshot for Arch Capital Group currently reflects enterprise value of 35.53 B, market capitalization of 33.47 B, debt of 2.73 B, and cash of 2.78 B. That snapshot should be treated as one valuation lens rather than as final proof of fair value because the interpretation can shift quickly when financing assumptions change.| Takeover Price | Market Cap | Debt Obligations | Cash |
35.53 B | 33.47 B | 2.73 B | 2.78 B |
Investor Information
About 94.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.4. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Arch Capital Group has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.05. The company recorded earnings per share (EPS) of 11.6. The firm had its last dividend issued on the 18th of November 2024. Arch Capital completed a 3:1 stock split on 21st of June 2018. Arch Capital Group reflects a mix of operating scale and capital structure considerations. Operating returns remain positive, suggesting ongoing earnings capacity. For financial institutions, capital adequacy, leverage ratios, and funding structure are central to financial strength assessment.| Current Value | Last Year | Change From Last Year | 10 Year Trend | ||||||
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| Operating Profit Margin | 0.14 | 0.2498 |
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| Operating Income | 5.2 B | 5 B |
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Asset Utilization
The asset utilization indicator refers to the revenue earned for every dollar of assets a company currently reports. Arch Capital has an asset utilization ratio of 29.72 percent. This suggests that the Company is making $0.3 for each dollar of assets. An increasing asset utilization means that Arch Capital Group is more efficient with each dollar of assets it utilizes for everyday operations.Macro event markers
Profitability Analysis
Taking into consideration Arch Capital's profitability measurements, Arch Capital's profitability may be sliding down. It has an above-average chance of reporting lower numbers next quarter. Profitability indicators assess Arch Capital's ability to earn profits and add value for shareholders.Net Income | First Reported 1995-09-30 | Previous Quarter 1.4 B | Current Value 1.2 B | Quarterly Volatility 353.8 M |
Macro event markers
| Current Value | Last Year | Change From Last Year | 10 Year Trend | ||||||
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| Gross Profit Margin | 0.23 | 0.3716 |
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| Net Profit Margin | 0.12 | 0.2207 |
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| Operating Profit Margin | 0.14 | 0.2498 |
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| Pretax Profit Margin | 0.27 | 0.2589 |
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| Return On Assets | 0.0689 | 0.0656 |
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| Return On Equity | 0.19 | 0.1817 |
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For Arch Capital profitability analysis, investors typically examine the ratios and operating drivers that show how well the company turns sales, assets, and shareholder capital into profit. These profitability indicators help investors judge how well Arch Capital uses its assets to create earnings power and long-term shareholder value.
Earnings per Share Projection vs Actual
Arch Capital has a forward EPS estimate of 2.49, alongside estimate bounds of 2.20 and 2.81. The latest trailing EPS figure is 11.60. For Arch Capital, EPS is most informative when read together with margin stability and cash-flow conversion. When reviewing projected earnings per share for Arch Capital Group, investors should keep in mind that consensus EPS estimates can include assumptions that smooth non-recurring items and stock-compensation effects. Arch Capital is projected to generate 2.4887 in earnings per share on 30th of June 2026. Investors usually get the best read by comparing this forecast with actual results, guidance revisions, and the company's historical earnings pattern.Macro event markers
Earnings Estimation Breakdown
For Arch Capital Group, the next projected earnings per share is 2.4887 based on current analyst consensus. The range of individual analyst forecasts runs from 2.2 to 2.807, reflecting varying views on Arch Capital's near-term business performance. Consensus EPS excludes non-recurring items and is calculated from trailing twelve-month operating results.Last Reported EPS
2.20 Lowest | Expected EPS | 2.81 Highest |
Earnings Projection Consensus
If consensus earnings estimates imply a fair value above Arch Capital's current price, the market may be discounting future earnings more aggressively than analysts. If the market price is ahead of the estimate, the implied premium may require strong execution to sustain. These valuation signals are best used as one input within a multi-method investment framework.
| Number of Analysts | Historical Accuracy | Last Reported EPS | Estimated EPS for 30th of June 2026 | Current EPS (TTM) | |
| 20 | 77.66% | 0.0 | 2.4887 | 11.6 |
Ownership Allocation
The majority of Arch Capital's outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. High institutional ownership often reflects the stock's eligibility for passive index funds, which are required to hold positions proportional to index weights regardless of their own investment view. Active managers holding Arch Capital must also disclose positions above certain thresholds through SEC filings. Institutions collectively hold about 94% of Arch Capital's shares, insiders own approximately 3%, and the remaining 2% is in public hands.Revenue and Profit Overview
The company reported previous year's revenue of 19.93 B. Net Income was 4.4 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 7.41 B.Historical Cash Distributions
Understanding dividend distributions from Arch Capital may help investors assess capital return consistency. Dividend sustainability depends on earnings support and broader capital allocation priorities. Those evaluating income potential may find it useful to analyze dividend distributions.
For Arch Capital Group, sound valuation work starts with a framework that tests assumptions, market expectations, and balance-sheet quality at the same time. This becomes more informative when investors compare operating progress, market capitalization, and expected business performance in the same review.
Valuation Framework, Methodology & Assumptions
Arch Capital is a large-cap equity in Property & Casualty Insurance, Insurance - Diversified, Financial Services categories. Intrinsic value assumptions are benchmarked against sector averages. Arch Capital currently trades at P/E of 19.15, P/B of 1.4, P/S of 1.68.
This section for Arch Capital Group is built from periodic company reporting and market reference feeds, with harmonization applied to align reporting definitions. Analyst inputs may be included when coverage is available. Values may update on different source schedules. Valuation outputs are model-derived and depend on published assumptions and reference inputs.
This content is curated and reviewed by:
Rifka Kats - Member of Macroaxis Editorial BoardGrowth Indicators
Growth-focused analysis of Arch Capital Group matters because high expectations can support outsized upside but also sharper repricing when execution slips. A disciplined growth review keeps upside potential and expectation risk visible at the same time.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 376.1 M | |
| Quarterly Earnings Growth Y O Y | 0.388 | |
| Forward Price Earnings | 9.7371 |
Arch Capital Current Valuation Indicators
Valuation of Arch Capital Group is strongest when several lenses are used together: market cap, enterprise value. revenue, and cash-flow durability. Good valuation narrows the range of reasonable outcomes before capital is committed.